For Israel-Focused Voters, Republicans Have the Far-Stronger Case

Donald Trump may not be everyone’s cup of tea.  But considering his far more solidly pro-Israel team, Republican commitment to repeal FATCA, Democratic unreliability towards Israel and Hillary’s deplorable Israel record (beyond her words), it’s not a close call. 

This column was originally published in the Jerusalem Post Continue reading

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The Wild Republican Race: Where Things Are, And Where Things Are Going

With an upcoming four-week break in the middle of primary season; with a decreasing likelihood that any single candidate can capture an outright majority of delegates; with an increasing number of delegates unbound to any candidate; and with most remaining primaries being Republican-voters-only and/or winner-take-all, the Republican nomination process is far from over.

This column was originally published in The Times of Israel Continue reading

NOT Inevitable (Yet): Now Trump Faces “Closed” Primaries — Which He Hasn’t Been Winning

Trump has won 9 of 11 open primaries, but only one of four closed.  Trump has been drawing heavily from Democrats and Independents in those open primaries.  But as the calendar takes away that advantage, his winning the nomination may not be so inevitable, after all.  Beginning March 22, only two remaining primaries are open. Continue reading

How not to read presidential polls: The increasing absurdity of media reports

This column was originally published by the Times of Israel.

While various statistical methods may be sound, all polling analysis depends on the quality of assumptions and data inputted.  Garbage in, garbage out: skewed data inputs lead to skewed poll results, no matter how brilliant any particular statistical methodology.  

At first, it was just a trickle, a misguided throw-away line here and there, easily ignored.  Then it started picking up momentum, showing up in one Israeli commentary after another.  And now, it is conventional wisdom in the Israeli press and public that the U.S. election is already over, that polls show President Obama’s reelection is inevitable, and that Republican Mitt Romney might as well throw in the towel now.
Of course, this is nonsense.  It is based on the most superficial reading of the most superficial polls.  Continue reading