The Wild Republican Race: Where Things Are, And Where Things Are Going

With an upcoming four-week break in the middle of primary season; with a decreasing likelihood that any single candidate can capture an outright majority of delegates; with an increasing number of delegates unbound to any candidate; and with most remaining primaries being Republican-voters-only and/or winner-take-all, the Republican nomination process is far from over.

This column was originally published in The Times of Israel Continue reading

Advertisements

Big Trouble For Obama: Lessons of Presidential Reelection History

This column was originally published in The Times of Israel.

Only nine incumbents have lost bids for reelection.  But if America continues its pattern of only reelecting presidents by a wider margin than that of their first term, Obama is about to become number 10.

Let’s take a short break from the back-and-forth arguments on the merits of whether to reelect President Barack Obama or to send him packing after one term.  Instead, here’s a different take on how the election is shaping up based on some compelling history and demographic analysis.  (Spoiler alert: this analysis does not bode well for the Democrats.) Continue reading