Romney Wins in a Landslide (at Least in Israel): What it Means

On the election map, the State of Israel is not just blue and white; it is solidly red.
The Presidential election results are in.  Well, at least the votes from Americans in Israel.  Not one to keep readers in suspense, I’ll reveal the most important numbers up front: Gov. Mitt Romney received 85%–85%!–of the vote; President Obama managed only 14.3%.  This,  according to exit polling just released by iVoteIsrael, the non-partisan group promoting and facilitating voting by U.S. citizens currently in Israel.  Their statistics reveal some fascinating results.  More importantly, these results have implications for the outcome of next week’s election.  (Again, not to keep you in suspense: those implications favor the Republicans.) Continue reading
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Obama’s Improved Debate Performance: What The Pundits Are Missing

 
It’s not about who wins a debate; it’s about who wins the election.  And this debate, whoever “won,” actually helps Mitt Romney’s election chances a lot more than it helps President Obama’s.
Let the race to over-analyze the debate begin!  What’s that?  Oh, it seems I’m a bit late—instant analysis and spin were already in full force within seconds of the debate’s completion.  Instead, I’ll have to analyze the over-analysis of the debate that blankets today’s news coverage.   Continue reading

The Surprising Israeli Takeaway From the Presidential Debate

Precisely because Israel-based viewers are less engaged in details of this campaign than voters in America.  They are, therefore, arguably a better reflection of the less-engaged and still-undecided voters in America than the hardened political junkies whose impressions of the candidates were formed long ago.
The first Obama-Romney debate is over, and has been followed by predictable torrents of over-dissection and over-analysis.  So, why add more?  Because reactions in Israel may be surprisingly instructive in projecting the likely impact of this debate on the coming election.  Americans in Israel, as well as native-Israelis, make for an interesting group with which to measure the effect of the debate, especially on the impression made by Governor Romney. Continue reading

Big Trouble For Obama: Lessons of Presidential Reelection History

This column was originally published in The Times of Israel.

Only nine incumbents have lost bids for reelection.  But if America continues its pattern of only reelecting presidents by a wider margin than that of their first term, Obama is about to become number 10.

Let’s take a short break from the back-and-forth arguments on the merits of whether to reelect President Barack Obama or to send him packing after one term.  Instead, here’s a different take on how the election is shaping up based on some compelling history and demographic analysis.  (Spoiler alert: this analysis does not bode well for the Democrats.) Continue reading