This column was originally published in The Times of Israel.

Only nine incumbents have lost bids for reelection.  But if America continues its pattern of only reelecting presidents by a wider margin than that of their first term, Obama is about to become number 10.

Let’s take a short break from the back-and-forth arguments on the merits of whether to reelect President Barack Obama or to send him packing after one term.  Instead, here’s a different take on how the election is shaping up based on some compelling history and demographic analysis.  (Spoiler alert: this analysis does not bode well for the Democrats.) Continue reading →