Big Trouble For Obama: Lessons of Presidential Reelection History

This column was originally published in The Times of Israel.

Only nine incumbents have lost bids for reelection.  But if America continues its pattern of only reelecting presidents by a wider margin than that of their first term, Obama is about to become number 10.

Let’s take a short break from the back-and-forth arguments on the merits of whether to reelect President Barack Obama or to send him packing after one term.  Instead, here’s a different take on how the election is shaping up based on some compelling history and demographic analysis.  (Spoiler alert: this analysis does not bode well for the Democrats.) Continue reading